16 campos que integrarán la nueva convergencia tecnológica

16 campos tecnológicos

Fuente: http://bit.ly/100oeYj

Señala que la evolución tecnológica producirá una convergencia a la que la Rand Corporation denomina Integrated Technology Applications (TAs) y que se reflejará en al menos 16 campos específicos. Estos 16 campos que integrarán la nueva convergencia tecnológica:

1. La energía solar barata
2. Las comunicaciones inalámbricas en áreas rurales
3. Los aparatos de comunicación para el acceso a la información desde cualquier lugar
4. Las cosechas genéticamente modificadas
5. Los bioensayos rápidos mediante uso de nanotecnologías
6. Filtros y catalizadores para la purificación y descontaminación de las aguas
7. La aplicación dirigida de medicamentos,
8. Los hogares autónomos baratos
9. La manufacturación verde o ecológica
10. Los identificadores de radio frecuencia ubicuos
11. Los vehículos híbridos
12. Los sensores de infiltración
13. Los tejidos con ingeniería
14. La mejora de métodos de diagnóstico y quirúrgicos
15. Los ordenadores sin cables
16. La criptografía cuántica

Paises con capacidad de asimilar 16TAs

Estudios de Futuro al 2050

Energía y Transporte

FREIGHTVISION – Sustainable European Freight Transport 2050

“FREIGHTVISION – Freight Transport 2050 Foresight” was a project funded by the European Commission Directorate General MOVE to design a long term vision for European freight transport in 2050 and to identify actions and research to progress appropriate freight transport measures in Europe.

EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050

This website covers work undertaken as part of two projects funded by the European Commission: DG Climate Action, which aimed to, among other things, stimulate a debate about the actions that need to be taken in the medium- to long-term (particularly between 2020 and 2050) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in the EU.

ROADMAP 2050

A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO A PROSPEROUS, LOW-CARBON EUROPE

VISION 2050: An Integrated National Transportation System

Our transportation system is critical to the Nation’s economy and our quality of life. The United States has long enjoyed one of the best and most efficient transportation systems in the world, but it is now facing significant challenges.

Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

Transport is one of the major global consumers of energy and therefore has an important role in meeting the primary objective of the World  Energy Council, sustainable energy for all. Transport is the only energy sector in which the
energy itself is mobile during consumption, rather than being delivered for use at a fixed location. For this reason, energy for transport is dominated by petroleum, which is widely available, relatively inexpensive and from which easily transportable liquid fuels of high energy density such as gasoline and diesel are made.

Energy Roadmap 2050 – European Commission

People’s well-being, industrial competitiveness and the overall functioning of society are dependent on safe, secure, sustainable and affordable energy. The energy infrastructure which  will power citizens’ homes, industry and services in 2050, as well as the buildings which  people will use, are being designed and built now. The pattern of energy production and use  in 2050 is already being set.

World Energy Technology Outlook – WETO H2

As the age of cheap energy resources comes to its end, strong political commitment is needed to preserve European competitiveness and to combat climate change. The WETO-H2 report (World Energy Technology Outlook-2050) places the European energy system in a global context. Europe represents today 10% of the world population, 25% of the world GDP and 20% of world energy consumption. Considering the demographic changes and the techno-economic progress made by developing countries, by 2050 these figures will be less than 7%, 15% and 12% respectively.

China’s energy technology options to 2050

This study assesses the potential for China to significantly reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 2050, with a focus on CO2 from energy and industrial emissions. The study uses modelling by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Imperial College London, to undertake a detailed analysis of the key technologies that could be deployed in China as part of a low carbon transition. The study also assesses the challenges and opportunities, in terms of a range of factors including R&D requirements, costs and use of resources, facing China and the international community in achieving such a transition.

Re-Thinking 2050 EU

Europe’s demand for energy is increasing in an environment of high and unstable energy prices. Greenhouse gas emissions are rising and the energy sector is one of the main emitters of greenhouse gases. Natural reserves of fossil fuels such as oil and gas are concentrated in just a few supplier countries around the world. Climate change along with an increasing dependency on energy imports are only a few of the risks the European economy is facing today. The EU now needs the courage to lead the way out of this climate and energy dilemma with a clear commitment to a 100% renewable energy future by 2050.

World Energy Scenarios to 2050

Energy Technology Perspectives

ETP2010 will build on the success of earlier editions, by providing decision makers with more detailed practical information and tools that can help kick-start the transition to a more secure, sustainable and affordable energy future. The new publication will present:

  • Updated scenarios with greater regional detail providing insights on which new technologies will be most important in the different regions of the world
  • Sectoral deep dives highlighting the key technological challenges and opportunities in each of the main energy-using sectors and the new policies that will be needed to realise change
  • Roadmaps and transition pathways identifying the technical and policy barriers to accelerated deployment of the most important clean technologies and how these can be overcome

Agua y Ciudades

Water in 2050

To be able to adequately feed and support the world’s growing population, our global economy needs to continue to grow. Water is critical to this growth. But it can also become the major limiting factor to growth. For instance, businesses in water-scarce areas are already at risk, and so investors are increasingly taking water supply into consideration during their decision-making processes.

Retrofit 2050: Re-engineering the city 2020-2050

Cities are responsible for some 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption, and by 2050 70% of the world’s population will live in cities. Facing the daunting prospects of climate change and growing resource constraints, the challenge for urban policymakers is to develop the knowledge and capacity to understand more sustainable ways of generating and using energy and resources and to incorporate them into the existing built environment, and the lives of the people who live in it.

The Design 2050 Challenge

The Design 2050 Challenge is a unique opportunity for us to, stop…and challenge the paradigm of reactionary responses to design…and try to imagine y[our] world in 2050, a place where we live “Life @ 1 Planet.”

Salud y Alimentación

Tackling Obesities: Future Choices – Visualising the Future: Scenarios to 2050

The four scenarios are constructed around two core uncertainties that emerged  from early analysis as being critical in the future context of obesity.

Active and Healthy Ageing –  A Long‐term View up to 2050

Although getting older is considered desirable, being old is seen as a problem. Over the last centuries average human life expectancy has risen dramatically. An increasing number of people are reaching increasingly higher ages. What would have been seen as a blessing a century ago is today considered as a curse by some people: the ageing society. Labour market shortages, overpopulation, youth unemployment, increasing retirement age, financial problems in pensions, health insurance
and social security systems, rising medical costs, generational conflicts, immigration, shortage in nursing personnel, “Planet Alzheimer’s” and economic difficulties and the development of controversial developments in science and technology are aspects that are commonly attributed to the ageing society.

Como alimentar al Mundo al 2050 – FAO

Durante la primera mitad de este siglo, a medida que la población mundial aumente hasta alcanzar los 9 000 millones de personas aproximadamente, la demanda mundial de alimentos, piensos y fibras casi se duplicará y al mismo tiempo, cada vez más, los cultivos podrían también usarse para producir bioenergía y para otros fines industriales. La demanda nueva y tradicional de productos agrícolas, por consiguiente, acarreará una presión creciente sobre los ya escasos recursos agrícolas.

Otros

Global Europe 2050

Confronted with highly complex and dynamic landscapes, states of crises and short-term reactions of governments and decisions-makers of all kinds, most readers will probably think that looking forward 30 or 40 years resembles writing science fiction. And yes, indeed, the time horizon (2030-2050) of this study and its all-encompassing scope (Europe and the world) call for a balanced combination of daring ambition and down-to-earth realism.

Plataformas Virtuales sobre Datos Geoespaciales – Perú

Primeramente quiero agredecer a Shirley Andrade y Socorro Orellana (ambas especialistas de CEPLAN, quienes que proporcionaron los links de estas plataformas – Gracias chicas!!!).

Y para los lectores más exigentes de mi blog, si bien la información que se proporciona no es muy profunda, al menos les permitirá poder hacerse ideas de ciertos temas desde un punto de vita geoespacial. Saludos

1.    GEOIDEP

GEOIDEP es la plataforma virtual de la ONGEI cuyo propósito es proporcionar enlaces a catálogos de metadatos, así como enlaces a Mapas Temáticos diversos desde los relacionados con establecimientos de salud hasta concesiones forestales o evaluación de proyectos, zonas de peligro y conflictos sociales, entre otros.

http://www.geoidep.gob.pe/

2.    MTC – Mapas de la red vial nacional por departamentos

Esta plataforma enlaza a los mapas de la red vial nacional definida en el D.S. 044-2008-MTC, para cada departamento.

http://www.mtc.gob.pe/portal/transportes/red_vial/mapas_redvial.htm

3.    GEOPORTAL CATAMAYO-CHIRA

El  Geoportal Catamayo – Chira abarca la cuenca hidrográfica de los ríos Catamayo, en Ecuador y Chira, en el Perú, y complementariamente la Provincia de Loja, en Ecuador.

El Geoportal permite el acceso a la información geográfica de las distintas instituciones públicas, así como también a los catálogos de información de metadatos de los distintos nodos del departamento y de la Cuenca Binacional Catamayo-Chira.

http://geocatamayochira.regionpiura.gob.pe/geoportal/#index_home.php

4.    GEOCATMIN

Es el sistema geológico y catastral minero desarrollado por el INGEMMET.

http://geocatmin.ingemmet.gob.pe/geocatmin/index.html

5.    GEOSERVIDOR DEL MINAM

Brinda información de distinta índole sobre diferentes temas, como las zonas protegidas, las poblaciones nativas, índices de desempeño ambiental, mapas interactivos entre otros.  También se tiene información consolidada de los 24 departamentos e indicadores a nivel nacional e informes consolidados.

http://geoservidor.minam.gob.pe/intro/

6.    ESCALE del MINISTERIO DE EDUCACIÓN

Muestra información espacial cartográfica respecto a la ubicación y características de las instituciones educativas a nivel nacional (áreas urbanas y rurales).

http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/descargas/mapa.aspx

7.    NUTRINET

Mapas de vulnerabilidad de desnutrición crónica a nivel distrital y de centros poblados menores elaborado por el Programa Mundial de Alimentos de Naciones Unidas (PMA).

http://peru.nutrinet.org/banco-de-conocimiento/mapas-distritales

8.    SIGEmprendedor-Perú

El Sistema de información geográfica para emprendedores – SIGE le permitirá identificar a nivel de un área geográfica que determine, las características del mercado como son el grado de concentración de principales giros de negocios, así como personal ocupado y el volumen anual de ventas. Además, las características de la población como edad, sexo, nivel educativo, ingresos promedios, entre otros; y de las viviendas ubicadas en el área circundante al negocio…

http://sige.inei.gob.pe/sige/

Manuales para Practicantes de la Prospectiva Tecnológica

Siempre es bueno, revisar manuales antes de empezar a practicar la prospectiva tecnológica (el camino fácil, por el que suelen caminar la mayoría es hacer encuestas delphi, no digo que no sea una técnica muy potente, pero esta debe tener un marco teórico y metodológico, sobre el cual desarrollarse).

Si bien es imposible encontrar recetas, la información que ofrecen los manuales, al menos permiten ubicarse mucho mejor en el uso de los métodos y técnicas, así como en la gestión de ejercicios o programas de prospectiva. En esta ocasión estoy colocando solamente información que he podido identificar enlaces en la web (es decir, han sido colgados por la misma institución que tiene los derechos de autor, por otro con autorización). Lo que significa que pueden compartir esta información con otros. Estén pendientes de este post, dado que conforme agregue más información, los estaré compartiendo vía twitter. Saludos

UNIDO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT MANUAL

Organization and Methods – Volume 1

Technology Foresight in Action – Volume 2

Foresight Methodologies - Training Module 2

Programa de Prospectiva Tecnológica para America Latina y El Caribe:

Manual de Metodologías (Enlaces del CGEE de Brasil)

TOMO I: Marco Teórico Conceptual

TOMO II: La Técnica Bayesiana

TOMO III: La Técnica Delphi

TOMO IV: Técnicas de las Matrices de Impacto Cruzado

TOMO V: La Técnica AHP

TOMO VI: Análisis Morfológico

Manual de CEPAL-ILPES (desde mi perspectiva es un excelente documento (para iniciar), que no pueden dejar de revisar, es algo así como un Manual de Prospectiva para Dummies)

Manual de prospectiva y decisión estratégica: bases teóricas e instrumentos para América Latina y el Caribe

Webs y Blogs de Prospectivas

Francisco Mójica: Es Doctor en “Ciencias Humanas” de la Universidad de París V “René Descartes” (Sorbona) y postdoctorado en “Prospectiva y  Estrategia” en el “Laboratoire d’Investigation en Prospective, Stratégie et Organisations” bajo la dirección del profesor Michel Godet,  en París…

Rafael Popper: Dr Rafael Popper is Research Fellow at Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIOIR) of the University of Manchester, where he completed his PhD on 21st Century Foresight. He is also Innovation Director and CEO of Futures Diamond in Czech Republic; Director of the iKnow Project; Director of the Summer/Winter Schools of the International Foresight Academy (IFA); and Leader of the Mapping activities of the European Foresight Platform (EFP). His main areas of work include: ‘foresight’ as an instrument of policy, the development of foresight and horizon scanning methodology, the design of forward-looking activities and their evaluation (with a focus on European and Latin American innovation policies)…

Juanjo Gabiña: Nací en Donostia, una bonita ciudad situada a orillas del Golfo de Bizkaia, que algunos conoceréis mejor como San Sebastián, País Vasco o Euskal Herria, como más os guste. Hace ya muchos años, cuando todavía era joven, acabé mis estudios de ingeniería industrial, en la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales de la Universidad de Navarra. Posteriormente, la carrera de ingeniería me supo a poco, pues quería dedicarme a la planificación en base a la estrategia y, para ello, necesitaba saber cómo preparar con anticipación el futuro…

Hugo San Martín: Hugo San Martín nació en la ciudad de La Paz en la República de Bolivia un primero de octubre de 1960. Estudió en el Instituto Americano. Los estudios universitarios los realizó en la Universidad Mayor de San Andrés donde se graduó como abogado constitucionalista además de cientista político. Es Master en Ciencias Políticas de la Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales…

Continuará…

 

Webs para los cazadores de Tendencias

TECH CAST: All organizations need technology forecasts for their strategic planning because technology drives the creative destruction of markets, introduces disruptive products and services, and alters the way organizations work.

BT TECHNOLOGY TIMELIME: Una línea de tiempo del 2006 al 2050

ENVISIONING EMERGING TECHNOLOGY: Understanding where technology is heading is more than guesswork. Looking at emerging trends and research, one can predict and draw conclusions about how the technological sphere is developing, and which technologies should become mainstream in the coming years.

DETAILED ROADMAP: This is the initial release of the “Detailed Roadmap of the 21st Century” compilation, a year by year bullet point list of notable advances expected to happen in the 21st century, from 2006 onwards.

FUTURETIMELIME.NET: Here you will find a speculative timeline of future history. Part fact and part fiction, the timeline is based on detailed research that includes analysis of current trends, projected long-term environmental changes, advances in technology such as Moore’s Law, future medical breakthroughs, and the evolving geopolitical landscape.

LIST OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES: This LIST contains some of the most prominent ongoing developments, advances, and innovations in various fields of modern technology. Emerging technologiesare those technical innovations which represent progressive developments within a field for competitive advantage. Opinions vary on the feasibility, importance, status, and economic viability of different emerging technologies.

WHAT’S NEXT: Here’s just a small list of some of the sites I find interesting, useful or both. As you’d expect I couldn’t include everything so I’ll update this list from time to time.

Metodología y Prospectiva. ¡Para qué inventar la pólvora!

Metodología y Prospectiva. ¡Para qué inventar la pólvora!

 

METODOLOGÍA DE LA PROSPECTIVA, POR RAFAEL POPPER: El objetivo principal es ayudar a los usuarios de la prospectiva a mejorar sus diseños metodológicos de proyectos y programas, de tal manera que se logren diferentes y mejores resultados.

Organizaciones y Prospectiva. Mirar Global, Actuar Local.

Organizaciones y Prospectiva. Mirar Global, Actuar Local.

A un poco más de un mes de encontrarme en el Centro Nacional de Planeamiento Estratégico – CEPLAN, siento haber redescubierto la prospectiva y los estudios de futuro nuevamente, pero en un nuevo contexto, donde convergen mayor cantidad de intereses y participan diversos actores con diferentes instrumentos para persuadir al resto.

Y en esta bella etapa de resdescubrimiento, he vuelto a navegar en la red para ubicar instituciones vinculadas al tema, recordando una frase muy conocida que suelo usar en mis presentaciones: Think Global, Act Local!!!

Espero que esta lista de links, les pueda ahorrar un poco de tiempo, si lo que están buscando son organizaciones que trabajan estudios de futuro y dentro de ellos la prospectiva.

PRODESINGLAB. Laboratorio de Prospectiva en Diseño: El equipo está formado por investigadores y profesionales del ámbito del diseño, la prospectiva y la innovación.

BIS. The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills UK: is making a difference by supporting sustained growth and higher skills across the economy. BIS: working together for growth (Este cuenta con un Programa de Prospectiva: Foresight).

FUTURIBLES: Centre indépendant d’étude et de réflexion prospective sur le monde contemporain, Futuribles analyse depuis plus de 40 ans, au-delà des effets de mode, quels sont les éléments vraiment structurants et les futurs possibles (futur-ibles).

HAWAII FUTURES. The Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies was established by the Hawaii State Legislature in 1971. It is one of the world’s most renowned institutions for futures research, consulting, and education.

WFS: The World Future Society is an organization of people dedicated to exploring the future. Since its establishment more than 40 years ago, the Society and THE FUTURIST magazine have endeavored to do one thing and to excel at it and that is to serve as a neutral clearinghouse of ideas on the future.

CIFS: Contributing with knowledge and inspiration, the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies supports decision-making. We identify and analyse trends that influence the future nationally and internationally.

FINLAND FUTURES RESEARCH: The Finland Futures Research Centre refines visionary knowledge regarding alternative futures and the challenges and possibilities included in them. The Centre offers analytical futures-oriented information in interesting formats to back up its clients futures processes.

GBN: The Global Business Network specializes in helping organizations adapt and grow more effectively and more responsibly in the face of mounting uncertainty — whether it’s uncertainty about their future, the future of their industry, or the future of the world at large. Founded in 1987 and part of Monitor since 2000, we work in close partnership with leading companies, governments, and nonprofits to help them address their most critical long-term challenges.

IFTF: The Institute for the Future is an independent nonprofit research group. We work with organizations of all kinds to help them make better, more informed decisions about the future. We provide the foresight to create insights that lead to action.

IPTS. The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies is one of the seven scientific institutes of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). We are located in Seville, Spain. Since 1994, IPTS promotes and enables a better understanding of the links between technology, economy and society.

IFP: The OECD International Futures Programme provides the Organisation with an early warning of emerging issues, pinpoints major developments, and analyses key long-term concerns to help governments map strategy. The Programme uses a variety of tools including multiyear projects, high-level conferences, expert workshops, and consultations; a futures-oriented online information system, and a network of contacts from government, industry, academia and civil society.

RFF: The mission of Resources for the Future is to improve environmental and natural resource policymaking worldwide through objective social science of the highest caliber.

IIASA: Founded in 1972, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an international research organization that conducts policy-oriented research  into problems that are too large or too complex to be solved by a single country or academic discipline.

LA PROSPECTIVE: Michel Godet est Professeur au Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, titulaire de la Chaire de prospective stratégique.

METAFUTURE: Hosted by Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic, this site explores these and many more futures-oriented issues.

MILLENNIUM PROJECT: The Millennium Project was founded in 1996 after a three-year feasibility study with the United Nations University, Smithsonian Institution, Futures Group International, and the American Council for the UNU. It is now an independent non-profit global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities.

OPTI: La Fundación OPTI lleva más de una década contribuyendo a la identificación de las tendencias tecnológicas más relevantes para el desarrollo de nuestra sociedad. OPTI pone su experiencia en prospectiva y vigilancia tecnológica al servicio de la innovación y la competitividad de la empresa de hoy, que aspira a ser la del mañana, y de la toma de decisiones por parte del sector público.

PERSONAL FUTURES NETWORK: The Personal Futures Network introduces some new, easily understood approaches that will help you to think like a futurist and learn about your personal futures.

WFSF: The World Futures Studies Federation is a global NGO that was founded in the 1960s to encourage and promote the development of futures studies as a transdisciplinary academic and professional field in all parts of the world. WFSF operates as a global network of practicing futurists – researchers, teachers, scholars, policy analysts, activists and others from approximately 60 countries.

UNIDO Technology foresight: is regarded as the most upstream element of the technology development process. It provides inputs for the formulation of technology policies and strategies that guide the development of the technological infrastructure. In addition, technology foresight provides support to innovation, and incentives and assistance to enterprises in the domain of technology management and technology transfer, leading to enhanced competitiveness and growth.

CGEE: Centro de Gestâo e Estudos Estratégicos. Promover e realizar estudos e pesquisas prospectivas de alto nível na área de ciência e tecnologia e suas relações com setores produtivos; promover e realizar atividades de avaliação de estratégias e de impactos econômicos e sociais das políticas, programas e projetos científicos e tecnológicos…

European Foresight Platform (EFP)is a network building program supported by the European Commission’s (Framework Programme 7). It aims at building a global network of networks bringing together different communities and individual professionals to share their knowledge about foresight, forecasting and other future studies methods.

MyForesight (National Foresight Institute): Is a pioneering, national-level initiative dedicated to the study and application of the field of Foresight. It is undertaken by the Malaysian-Industry Government Group for High Technology (MIGHT), an agency under the Prime Minister’s Department. Utilizing scientific and hybrid methodologies, myForesight conducts various foresight-related programmes nationwide. The programmes serves to guide the government and industry to systematically look into the future.

Cambios Futuros en el Sector Textil: ¿Oportunidades o Amenazas?

Luego de haber participado durante 4 años como ponente en congresos realizados por universidades, creo que es muy importante realizar una labor divulgativa de los cambios y tendencias que se están dando en el mundo, en diferentes sectores y áreas donde la humanidad viene realizando alguna acción (dado que existe mucho desconocimiento de las tendencias, las señales débiles, los datos portadores de futuros, etc que podrían afectar el futuro de nuestras comunidades, organizaciones y ciudadanos).
Peru Joven 2040, podría ser con el tiempo un agente facilitador para la creación de futuros alternativos a los esperados por una mayoría, que observa la realidad de forma pasiva.