Ciudades y Futuro: Algunos enlaces interesantes

Future City

The Future Cities Laboratory (FCL) is a transdisciplinary research programme focused on sustainable urbanisation on different scales in a global perspective, laying the foundation for a new form of urban studies programme. FCL is co-initiated by the ETH departments of Architecture (DArch) and Civil Engineering (DBaug). It is the first research programme of the Singapore-ETH Centre for Global Environmental Sustainability (SEC). It is home to a community of over 100 PhD, postdoctoral and Professorial researchers working on diverse themes related to future cities and environmental sustainability.

Future Cities Lab is an experimental design studio, workshop and architectural think tank operating globally out of San Francisco, California.  Future Cities Lab is an interdisciplinary studio employing an adventurous team of interaction designers, architects, technologists, digital craftspeople, urban ecologists and more.

The real-time city is now real! The increasing deployment of sensors and hand-held electronics in recent years is allowing a new approach to the study of the built environment. The way we describe and understand cities is being radically transformed – alongside the tools we use to design them and impact on their physical structure. Studying these changes from a critical point of view and anticipating them is the goal of the SENSEable City Laboratory, a new research initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The Beijing City Lab (BCL) is a virtual research community, dedicated to studying, but not limited to, China’s capital Beijing. The Lab focuses on employing interdisciplinary methods to quantify urban dynamics, generating new insights for urban planning and governance, and ultimately producing the science of cities required for sustainable urban development. The lab’s current mix of planners, architects, geographers, economists, and policy analysts lends unique research strength.

cityLAB, founded in 2006 as a think tank within UCLA’s Department of Architecture and Urban Design, is concerned with contemporary urban issues, urban design, and the architecture of the city. Specifically, cityLAB explores the challenges facing the 21st century metropolis through research and design, expanding the possibilities for our cities to grow more livably, sustainably, and beautifully.

World Cities Network is an open and independent body created to improve the resilience of cities. The organisation facilitates the sharing of ideas between city leaders and professionals internationally across the real estate, technology, design, and urban infrastructure industries.

The Center for Resilient Cities is a 501(c)3 nonprofit that practices sustainable community development, working with neighbors to build communities that are good for people and good for the environment. Our process starts by asking neighbors about the values, needs and priorities of the community. Then we lend our expertise and develop partnerships to address both current and future challenges within the neighborhood.

100 Resilient Cities – Pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation (100RC) is dedicated to helping cities around the world become more resilient to the physical, social and economic challenges that are a growing part of the 21st century.   100RC supports the adoption and incorporation of a view of resilience that includes not just the shocks – earthquakes, fires, floods, etc. – but also the stresses that weaken the fabric of a city on a day to day or cyclical basis.

ResilientCity.org is an open, not-for-profit network of urban planners, architects, designers, engineers, and landscape architects whose mission is to develop creative, practical, and implementable planning and design strategies that help increase the capacity for resilience of our communities and cities to the future shocks and stresses associated with climate change, environmental degradation, resource shortages, in the context of global population growth.

Through original reporting, sharp analysis, and visual storytelling, CityLab informs and inspires the people who are creating the cities of the future—and those who want to live there.

 

El Futuro de la Energía

El día de ayer mientras esperaba una reunión en OSINERGMIN para conversar acerca del sector energía y sus tendencias, encontre en la red un enlace muy interesante sobre la energía trabajado por la empresa australiana Origin Energy. En este enlace se hace referencia a como las tendencias globales están dando forma al futuro de la energía:

Global Energy Trends

Así mismo, se presentan 4 escenarios exploratorios del sistema eléctrico australiano y otras visiones en el mundo sobre como sería el uso de energía al 2050.

Desde mi humilde punto de vista, creo que la información del siguiente enlace será de mucha utilidad para quienes les interesa estudiar el futuro de la energía: http://www.originenergy.com.au/4234/Future-of-energy

 

Nota: Origin Energy es una compañía australiana de energía que se dedica a la exploración y producción de petróleo y gas; generación de energía; venta de energía; y desarrollo de energía renovable en Australia y en el extranjero. En 2012, la empresa adquirió una participación del 51% en la compañía chilena Energía Austral SpA. La compañía, la cual tiene nueve concesiones geotérmicas en el país, planea construir un proyecto hidroeléctrico de 1GW en la región sureña de Aysén. De realizarse, se convertiría en el segundo proyecto hidroeléctrico más grande de Chile. Ese mismo año, Origin también adquirió una participación del 100% en Energy Hydro Chile SpA. Origin Energy fue fundada en 2000 y tiene su sede en Sídney, Australia.

Proceso General de Planeamiento Estratégico: Fase de Análisis Prospectivo (parte 1)

La Directiva General del Proceso de Planeamiento Estratégico facilita los procesos de planeamiento estratégico en el Gobierno Peruano,  y además contiene una fase de análisis prospectivo que anteriormente no se solía aplicar. Para facilitar su comprensión estoy compartiendo algunas presentaciones elaboradas en el CEPLAN para introducirlos de manera general en el proceso.

En esta oportunidad les dejaré una presentación con el procedimiento general a seguir para analizar y comprender el sector en estudio, así como para la construcción de escenarios.

Tendencias y Cambios al 2030 para Gobiernos y Ciudadanos – Parte 1

El documento de KPMG plantea 9 megatendencias que pueden resumirse en la siguiente imagen del mismo:

Gtrends KPMG

Estudio KPMG: http://bit.ly/1isRO2s

Cuando se piensa en tendencias, se parte del supuesto de la continuidad de un patrón histórico, se asume que el comportamiento que hasta el momento a tenido una variable, se mantendrá a futuro. En el caso de las megatendencias, se habla de un set de variables que caracterizan un fenómeno más complejo, pero que claramente puede asumirse que continuará a futuro en un horizonte de tiempo específico.

Varias instituciones publican documentos sobre megatendencias, en la mayoría de los casos suelen coincidir, dado que describen los fenómenos a partir de bases de datos estadísticos, donde se toma como referencia el promedio mundial de un indicador. No obstante, cuando se realiza un estudio de futuro, dependiendo de la temática de estudio, es necesario entrar a los detalles vinculados al ámbito geográfico, para analizar con mayor cuidado el impacto real de una tendencia. Por ejemplo, Si revisamos la megatendencia “demographics”, se encontrará que uno de los temas que más resalta, es el envejecimiento de la población. Sin embargo, esta tendencia no tendrá el mismo impacto en todos los países.

Cuando se habla del envejecimiento de la población se hace referencia a la relación que tiene la mayor esperanza de vida y el descenso de las tasas de natalidad con el aumentó de la proporción de personas mayores en todo el mundo.

No obstante si observamos un gráfico que muestre el porcentaje de población mayor de 65 años, se puede observar que en algunos países, el impacto que tendría la proporción de jóvenes será mucho mayor. Por lo cual, en el caso peruano, una proporción de población envejecida entre 10 al 20%, implica un desafío para los sistemas de protección social, incluidas las pensiones y la atención sanitaria. Pero, simultáneamente, la alta proporción de personas en edad de trabajar, tendrá mayor impacto, en especial en las necesidades de empleo.

Dependencia Envejecimiento

Si a esto le sumamos, el impacto que podrían tener los desarrollos tecnológicos actuales para prolongar una vida saludable, como por ejemplo:

Methuselah_Foundation_logo

 “Al 2030, con los avances en la ingeniería de tejidos y la medicina regenerativa, queremos crear un mundo en el que las personas de 90 años puedan ser tan saludables como una persona 50 años-edad”

La pregunta que deberíamos hacernos es ¿Qué podemos hacer para reducir los riesgos de desempleo a futuro y asegurar una calidad de vida de las personas mayores de 65 años? ¿Debemos usar la tecnología para extender una vida saludable y rediseñar los sistemas de pensiones?

Como verán en base a muy poca información es posible identificar desafíos y oportunidades futuras, si profundizamos en el tema, trabajando con especialista en metodologías de estudios de futuro y prospectiva, podríamos enriquecer mucho más estos análisis, que posteriormente serían útiles para la toma de decisiones, tanto de gobiernos, como de ciudadanos.

PD: ¿Tienen ustedes algunas propuestas para enfrentar los desafíos y oportunidades futuras de los cambios demográficos?

 

 

16 campos que integrarán la nueva convergencia tecnológica

16 campos tecnológicos

Fuente: http://bit.ly/100oeYj

Señala que la evolución tecnológica producirá una convergencia a la que la Rand Corporation denomina Integrated Technology Applications (TAs) y que se reflejará en al menos 16 campos específicos. Estos 16 campos que integrarán la nueva convergencia tecnológica:

1. La energía solar barata
2. Las comunicaciones inalámbricas en áreas rurales
3. Los aparatos de comunicación para el acceso a la información desde cualquier lugar
4. Las cosechas genéticamente modificadas
5. Los bioensayos rápidos mediante uso de nanotecnologías
6. Filtros y catalizadores para la purificación y descontaminación de las aguas
7. La aplicación dirigida de medicamentos,
8. Los hogares autónomos baratos
9. La manufacturación verde o ecológica
10. Los identificadores de radio frecuencia ubicuos
11. Los vehículos híbridos
12. Los sensores de infiltración
13. Los tejidos con ingeniería
14. La mejora de métodos de diagnóstico y quirúrgicos
15. Los ordenadores sin cables
16. La criptografía cuántica

Paises con capacidad de asimilar 16TAs

Estudios de Futuro al 2050

Energía y Transporte

FREIGHTVISION – Sustainable European Freight Transport 2050

“FREIGHTVISION – Freight Transport 2050 Foresight” was a project funded by the European Commission Directorate General MOVE to design a long term vision for European freight transport in 2050 and to identify actions and research to progress appropriate freight transport measures in Europe.

EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050

This website covers work undertaken as part of two projects funded by the European Commission: DG Climate Action, which aimed to, among other things, stimulate a debate about the actions that need to be taken in the medium- to long-term (particularly between 2020 and 2050) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in the EU.

ROADMAP 2050

A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO A PROSPEROUS, LOW-CARBON EUROPE

VISION 2050: An Integrated National Transportation System

Our transportation system is critical to the Nation’s economy and our quality of life. The United States has long enjoyed one of the best and most efficient transportation systems in the world, but it is now facing significant challenges.

Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

Transport is one of the major global consumers of energy and therefore has an important role in meeting the primary objective of the World  Energy Council, sustainable energy for all. Transport is the only energy sector in which the
energy itself is mobile during consumption, rather than being delivered for use at a fixed location. For this reason, energy for transport is dominated by petroleum, which is widely available, relatively inexpensive and from which easily transportable liquid fuels of high energy density such as gasoline and diesel are made.

Energy Roadmap 2050 – European Commission

People’s well-being, industrial competitiveness and the overall functioning of society are dependent on safe, secure, sustainable and affordable energy. The energy infrastructure which  will power citizens’ homes, industry and services in 2050, as well as the buildings which  people will use, are being designed and built now. The pattern of energy production and use  in 2050 is already being set.

World Energy Technology Outlook – WETO H2

As the age of cheap energy resources comes to its end, strong political commitment is needed to preserve European competitiveness and to combat climate change. The WETO-H2 report (World Energy Technology Outlook-2050) places the European energy system in a global context. Europe represents today 10% of the world population, 25% of the world GDP and 20% of world energy consumption. Considering the demographic changes and the techno-economic progress made by developing countries, by 2050 these figures will be less than 7%, 15% and 12% respectively.

China’s energy technology options to 2050

This study assesses the potential for China to significantly reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 2050, with a focus on CO2 from energy and industrial emissions. The study uses modelling by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Imperial College London, to undertake a detailed analysis of the key technologies that could be deployed in China as part of a low carbon transition. The study also assesses the challenges and opportunities, in terms of a range of factors including R&D requirements, costs and use of resources, facing China and the international community in achieving such a transition.

Re-Thinking 2050 EU

Europe’s demand for energy is increasing in an environment of high and unstable energy prices. Greenhouse gas emissions are rising and the energy sector is one of the main emitters of greenhouse gases. Natural reserves of fossil fuels such as oil and gas are concentrated in just a few supplier countries around the world. Climate change along with an increasing dependency on energy imports are only a few of the risks the European economy is facing today. The EU now needs the courage to lead the way out of this climate and energy dilemma with a clear commitment to a 100% renewable energy future by 2050.

World Energy Scenarios to 2050

Energy Technology Perspectives

ETP2010 will build on the success of earlier editions, by providing decision makers with more detailed practical information and tools that can help kick-start the transition to a more secure, sustainable and affordable energy future. The new publication will present:

  • Updated scenarios with greater regional detail providing insights on which new technologies will be most important in the different regions of the world
  • Sectoral deep dives highlighting the key technological challenges and opportunities in each of the main energy-using sectors and the new policies that will be needed to realise change
  • Roadmaps and transition pathways identifying the technical and policy barriers to accelerated deployment of the most important clean technologies and how these can be overcome

Agua y Ciudades

Water in 2050

To be able to adequately feed and support the world’s growing population, our global economy needs to continue to grow. Water is critical to this growth. But it can also become the major limiting factor to growth. For instance, businesses in water-scarce areas are already at risk, and so investors are increasingly taking water supply into consideration during their decision-making processes.

Retrofit 2050: Re-engineering the city 2020-2050

Cities are responsible for some 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption, and by 2050 70% of the world’s population will live in cities. Facing the daunting prospects of climate change and growing resource constraints, the challenge for urban policymakers is to develop the knowledge and capacity to understand more sustainable ways of generating and using energy and resources and to incorporate them into the existing built environment, and the lives of the people who live in it.

The Design 2050 Challenge

The Design 2050 Challenge is a unique opportunity for us to, stop…and challenge the paradigm of reactionary responses to design…and try to imagine y[our] world in 2050, a place where we live “Life @ 1 Planet.”

Salud y Alimentación

Tackling Obesities: Future Choices – Visualising the Future: Scenarios to 2050

The four scenarios are constructed around two core uncertainties that emerged  from early analysis as being critical in the future context of obesity.

Active and Healthy Ageing –  A Long‐term View up to 2050

Although getting older is considered desirable, being old is seen as a problem. Over the last centuries average human life expectancy has risen dramatically. An increasing number of people are reaching increasingly higher ages. What would have been seen as a blessing a century ago is today considered as a curse by some people: the ageing society. Labour market shortages, overpopulation, youth unemployment, increasing retirement age, financial problems in pensions, health insurance
and social security systems, rising medical costs, generational conflicts, immigration, shortage in nursing personnel, “Planet Alzheimer’s” and economic difficulties and the development of controversial developments in science and technology are aspects that are commonly attributed to the ageing society.

Como alimentar al Mundo al 2050 – FAO

Durante la primera mitad de este siglo, a medida que la población mundial aumente hasta alcanzar los 9 000 millones de personas aproximadamente, la demanda mundial de alimentos, piensos y fibras casi se duplicará y al mismo tiempo, cada vez más, los cultivos podrían también usarse para producir bioenergía y para otros fines industriales. La demanda nueva y tradicional de productos agrícolas, por consiguiente, acarreará una presión creciente sobre los ya escasos recursos agrícolas.

Otros

Global Europe 2050

Confronted with highly complex and dynamic landscapes, states of crises and short-term reactions of governments and decisions-makers of all kinds, most readers will probably think that looking forward 30 or 40 years resembles writing science fiction. And yes, indeed, the time horizon (2030-2050) of this study and its all-encompassing scope (Europe and the world) call for a balanced combination of daring ambition and down-to-earth realism.